5/29/2023 0 Comments Scary gas mask![]() These days the demand is there but the supply is not, hence the global EV waiting list is now in the order of 3 million vehicles.Ī lithium deficit can only mean lithium prices stay ‘stronger for longer’ this decade The scary part is that in a good year electric car demand can grow at 100%pa, as we saw with a 108% increase in 2021, which sent the lithium market into deficit. ![]() ![]() This will be needed – and will grow larger – each year. This means the market needs about 9 new mines or expansion of existing mines, just to catch up with demand. Looking at lithium supply a typical new mine or mine expansion could possibly bring on 20,000t LCE in a year. If we add in other sources of lithium the global lithium market will roughly increase by about 185,000t LCE in 2022, or about a 34% increase on 2021 levels of approximately 540,000t LCE. This means lithium demand, only from plugin electric cars, will increase by roughly 152,000 tonnes (“t”) of lithium carbonate equivalent (“LCE”) in 2022 ((45/1000) x 3,375,000)). Given 2021 global plugin electric car sales were 6.75 million, 2022 will likely end up at about 10.125 million, or 3.375 million additional new electric cars. In 2022 global plugin electric car sales look set to grow by at least 50%+ year over year. To better understand the size of the demand wave investors need to get a feel for how much lithium will be needed to feed the electric vehicle boom.Ī typical 50kWh battery electric car (roughly the global average size in 2022) requires about 45kgs of lithium carbonate equivalent. In the case of lithium, many EV metals experts agree we have only just entered a lithium supercycle. New mines can take 5-10 years to come online, yet a new EV and battery factory can be built in 1-2 years. That’s where the demand wave is so big that it takes as long as a decade for supply to eventually catch up or for demand to subside. However, every once in a while we get a commodity supercycle. The lithium carbonate price has risen as EV demand has taken off – Currently at CNY 510,500/t (~US$70,000/t)Ĭonventional commodity booms typically follow a rather fast boom and bust cycle as the cure for deficits is high prices, thereby encouraging new supply. This has been caused by EV sales booming, resulting in a huge demand wave for lithium that literally swamped the small lithium industry. Meanwhile, the lithium spodumene price has enjoyed a similar 10 fold increase from US$500/t to US$5,000/t. ![]() Saving Earth Britannica Presents Earth’s To-Do List for the 21st Century.The past two years has seen lithium prices rise about ten times from US$7,000/t to US$70,000/t both for lithium hydroxide and carbonate.Britannica Beyond We’ve created a new place where questions are at the center of learning. ![]()
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